Why shallots? Why not shallots?
From the Times of India:
India would make Pakistan a barren land in the next six years by blocking its water through construction of dams in violation of the Indus Water Treaty, Pakistan Indus Water Commissioner Jamaat Ali Shah said on Monday.
[…] Dismissing India’s claim that it had stopped Pakistan’s water only from August 19 to 28, he said,”we do not accept the Indian point of view because India has stopped water till September 5 according to our estimate.”
To put things into perspective, Pakistan has a population that’s two thirds of America’s, crammed into a space about the size of California and Montana, with an economy that’s about on par with Arkansas and a per capita GDP that’s one eighteenth of America’s. And now, with its 173,000,000 people almost out of water, Pakistan is seeing the tap further tightened by Indian hydroelectric projects that divert the Indus river away. How’s that for a catastrophe waiting to happen?
Add to that the fact that both countries have nuclear weapons, and have fought four wars and many more skirmishes over the last 61 years, narrowly averting another war in 2002. These countries are anything but bosom buddies, and there’s no question that the subcontinent is one of the world’s most potentially explosive regions.
Pakistan’s president has just announced that his country will never use its nukes unless someone nukes it first, which is encouraging news. But the army has a lot more control over Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal than he does, and if the country does indeed run out of life-giving water in just six years as expected, you can bet the military will keep every option on the table.
To be fair though, can you really blame them? Pakistan can’t afford to import water for its huge population, nor can it afford enough coastline desalination plants to keep its people hydrated and its farms irrigated. If you were president of a poor, over-populated country with a looming water crisis and just one big international trump card to play, wouldn’t you wave it around too? You would know, of course, that nuclear war would make a good chunk of South Asia’s water irradiated and undrinkable, and you’d surely think privately that you’re just bluffing to get an essential resource for your people, but what do you do if your bluff is called?
On the other side of the border, India faces an urgent need for energy to fuel its soaring economy, and hydroelectric dams can finally bring clean power to a country that’s choking in smog and desperate for more juice.
Not to sound too much like an intro-level poli sci professor or anything, but a water shortage halfway around the world has serious implications for the rest of us. War, nuclear or otherwise, tends to draw in allies, and if India — with the world’s 12th biggest economy and a huge 9% growth rate — is one of the main players, you can bet it’ll have an impact on your wallet as well. If India and Pakistan do drag their 1.4 billion people to war — among them nearly 2 million troops — how long can a country like China, with its deep bonds to the Pakistani underdogs, stay out of the fray? And with China tipping the scales toward Pakistan — a country often accused of aiding Taliban fighters, selling nuclear secrets and brutally violating human rights in general — how long before America gets behind India? In that nightmare scenario, the world’s 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 7th largest armies are duking it out in the world’s most populous region.
For years now, policy wonks have been saying that World War Three will be fought over water, and lately this prediction is becoming a grim consensus. World War Four, however, seems likely to be fought over which Mad Max-type road warrior gang gets dibs on the prime hunting grounds for hyper-irradiated two-headed water buffalo. Either that or a violent Amazing Race-style contest where the survivors of an apocalyptic nuclear war dash madly to get here first.
Now how’s that for a movie idea?
Image via Wikimedia.
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